Green Bay Packers Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown
Matt LaFleur’s Packers win a whole lot of regular-season games.
A baker’s dozen each year to be specific.
LaFleur has guided the Packers to a 39-10 record over his first three years, the most regular-season wins by any coach in his first three seasons. Green Bay also became the first team in NFL history to ever win 13 games in three consecutive seasons.
If only the NFL rewarded teams for regular-season excellence, then the Packers would be well into a dynasty. Green Bay, though, has disappointed in the playoffs each of the last three seasons. They are just 2-3 in the postseason over that stretch despite being the No. 1 seed twice, including last year’s home flop in the divisional round against the 49ers.
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: DAL | PHI | WSH | NYG | Division Odds
AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds
NFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TB | NO | ATL | CAR | Division Odds
AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds
NFC West Over/Under Wins Total: LAR | ARZ | SF | SEA | Division Odds
NFC North Over/Under Wins Total: MIN | CHI | DET | Division Odds
Those playoffs losses don’t matter for regular-season wins total over/under bets, though, and Green Bay’s 11.5 wins for 2022 is tied for the league high at SI Sportsbook.
Green Bay returns a strong roster but one notable absence is elite receiver Davante Adams, whom the Packers dealt to the Raiders. Green Bay employed arguably the best receiver in the NFL but now has arguably the weakest receiving unit in the league. The team did draft potential fantasy sleeper Christian Watson in the second round and fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs has turned heads during training camp.
The Packers will lean on back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers to elevate the talent around him and hope a strong defense and the rushing attack featuring Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon can help them win without a high-octane offense.
Let’s see if this new-look Packers’ offense can get to at least 12 wins for a fourth straight season en route to a fourth consecutive division title.
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Samantha Madar/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK
Green Bay Packers Over/Under: 11.5 - O (+100) | U (-141)
2021-22 record: 13-4; First NFC North; 1-seed; Lost divisional round vs. 49ers
NFC North future odds: -200 (First)
NFC future odds: +450 (Tied-second)
Super Bowl future odds: +1000 (Tied-fourth)
Key additions: WR Sammy Watkins, DT Jarran Reed, WR Christian Watson
Key losses: WR Davante Adams, LB Za’Darius Smith, OL Billy Turner
Packers Central offseason grade: C
Arguably the biggest transaction during the entire NFL offseason was the trade of All-Pro receiver Davante Adams to the Raiders for first- and second-round picks. With the first-round pick, the Packers selected Walker, a linebacker prospect with an incredible combination of size and speed. He potentially will give the Packers an elite tandem alongside Campbell. The Packers packaged their second-round pick to move up to select receiver Christian Watson, who also features an incredible combination of size and speed. He potentially will join Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Adams in the team’s pantheon of great second-round receivers. But whether Walker and Watson will maximize their athletic gifts is anyone’s guess. Their development will determine whether the Packers won or lost the blockbuster trade. Re-signing Campbell and Douglas were huge moves in keeping together what could be a powerhouse defense.—Bill Huber
SCHEDULE
Week 1: At Vikings
Week 2: Bears
Week 3: At Buccaneers
Week 4: Patriots
Week 5: Giants (London)
Week 6: Jets
Week 7: At Commanders
Week 8: At Bills
Week 9: At Lions
Week 10: Cowboys
Week 11: Titans
Week 12: At Eagles
Week 13: At Bears
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: Rams
Week 16: At Dolphins
Week 17: Vikings
Week 18: Lions
The Packers have one thing going for them every year: The NFC North stinks.
Sorry to be blunt but it’s true. The Vikings, Lions and Bears have combined for one Super Bowl title (Chicago in 1985) and one Super Bowl appearance in the last 36 seasons. The Lions have never even played in the big game.
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Murderer’s row, the NFC North is not and LaFleur is 15-3 in NFC North games. Dominating your division is a great start to winning double-digit games.
Green Bay went 4-2 against the division last year but one of those losses came in Week 18 with home-field advantage already secured.
The opening game against the Vikings is the hardest divisional game but the Packers demolished Minnesota in Minneapolis two years ago to open the season. Green Bay is currently a slight favorite for this year’s season-opening contest.
While the Lions should be better this year they’re not yet a true contender, while the Bears will again be awful. We’re going to project 5-1 because Green Bay isn’t going to blow teams out of the water offensively like in the past. However, 6-0 is not out of reach should the Packers win that opening game in Minneapolis.
Let’s check the rest of the NFC slate.
The Packers have a fortunate draw in the NFC East but their crossover games are brutal with the Buccaneers and Super Bowl champion Rams on tap.
Green Bay welcomes the Cowboys and Rams and will face the Giants in London. The Pack is on the road vs. the Eagles, Commanders and Buccaneers.
The Packers can go 1-1 against the other two NFC juggernauts, especially since they eliminated the Rams from the playoffs two seasons ago and beat them at home last year. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are 2-0 against the Packers in the Tom Brady era. Tampa Bay is slightly favored for that Week 3 game, which is its home opener.
Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have SI Sportsbook’s best NFC future odds.
- Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen
The Packers will beat the Giants and should beat the Cowboys at home, but the road game against the Eagles will be tough. That game is currently a pick’em, while the Packers are favored for their road game against the Commanders.
A 3-1 record feels right for Green Bay against the NFC East and with the 1-1 in the other NFC games that give us a 4-2 mark to add to the 5-1 division start.
We’re now at 9-3 with the AFC games on tap.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Green Bay draws the AFC East and its crossover game is the Titans at home. Let’s mark off the Titans as a win at home, getting us to 10 wins. Tennessee did not handle its trip to Lambeau Field all that well two years ago and projects to regress this year.
The Packers will welcome the Jets and Patriots and visit the Dolphins and Bills.
- RB Props Series: Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | Taylor | CMC | Ekeler | Harris
Green Bay should win both homes games and that gets us to 12 wins regardless of the AFC East road games. Green Bay is an underdog against the Bills while the Dolphins game figures to be challenging and potentially have huge playoff implications.
The Packers can beat the Dolphins and that would give us 13 wins, but even a conservative projection with a loss still produces a 12-5 season.
Let’s review the projections to see if we need to adjust.
NFC North: 5-1 - Could be 6-0, so this is a safe projection.
NFC East/Rams/Buccaneers: 4-2 - A 3-1 mark versus the NFC East and split with the Rams and Buccaneers seems right.
AFC East/Titans: 3-2 - We can easily project a win over the Dolphins but went safe here. The Packers could go 4-1 with the Bills game remaining the loss.
I wrote earlier this offseason that betting on the Packers to win over 11.5 games at +100 odds was my favorite NFL schedule bet. That still rings true now.
Bet on the over and collect on your plus-money odds.
BET: Over 11.5 wins (+100)
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