Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Final March Madness Projections for Selection Sunday

Happy Selection Sunday! The journey to the 68-team men’s field is concluding after a chaotic week of conference tournaments. Sports Illustrated locks in its predictions for what the bracket will look like when it is revealed Sunday evening.

Who’s in, who’s out and who’s sweating the most throughout the selection show? Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s final projected field.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Texas A&M
NC State
UCF
Santa Clara

Last Four In

Missouri
Miami (Ohio)
SMU
Texas

First Four Out

Auburn
San Diego State
Oklahoma
New Mexico

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
Indiana
Seton Hall
Cincinnati

For the most part, Saturday’s results didn’t add too much drama to the bubble decision-making process. Ole Miss couldn’t upset Arkansas to continue its run at a bid in the SEC, while San Diego State losing to Utah State in the Mountain West avoided a team falling off the bubble there. For the most part, it’s the same data we’ve been staring at all week.

In the end, the hardest decision (pending what happens with VCU in the Atlantic 10 title game) came down to four teams for two spots. Those were: SMU and Texas making the field and Auburn and San Diego State as the first two teams left out.

The case for each:

SMU

In spite of its poor finish, SMU is a 20-win power-conference team with no bad losses and four Quad 1 wins. Its résumé is clean. It also can argue that the injury to B.J. Edwards is largely to blame for the end-of-season swoon, and the school announced Edwards will be back for the NCAA tournament.

Texas

The Longhorns have a pair of elite wins: at Alabama and vs. Vanderbilt. Their six Quad 1 victories are also the most of the teams around our final cut line.

Auburn

Ignore the ugly win-loss record for a second, and everything else about Auburn’s profile is tournament-quality. The Tigers’ metrics are better than SMU’s or Texas’s, their road win at Florida is the best of any bubble team and the win over St. John’s in the nonconference is legit.

San Diego State

The wins are less flashy, but SDSU’s analytical profile looks very comparable to the rest of the bubble. And would it be really fair for a Mountain West with six top-75 KenPom teams not to get two teams in?

Oklahoma and New Mexico may have a puncher’s chance at sneaking in, though it seems likely they come up just short. Anyone below that on SI’s final bubble needn’t bother turning on the selection show.

Projected Field

Bold teams clinched their automatic bid.

East Region

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Akron
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Hawai’i
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Missouri/Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard/UMBC
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
No. 5 Kansas vs. No. 12 High Point
No. 4 St. John’s vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 SMU/Texas
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State

West Region

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Ohio State
No. 5 Nebraska vs. No. 12 McNeese State
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Troy
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 VCU
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Idaho
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Furman

South Region

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Queens
No. 8 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 California Baptist
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 South Florida
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Siena

More March Madness from Sports Illustrated

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