Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Final March Madness Projections for Selection Sunday

Happy Selection Sunday! The journey to the 68-team men’s field is just hours from its conclusion after a chaotic week of conference tournaments. But with all but a handful of conference title games yet to be played, Sports Illustrated is ready to lock in its predictions for what the bracket will look like when it is revealed Sunday evening.

Who’s in, who’s out and who’s sweating the most throughout the day today? Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s projected field, which will be updated throughout the day as final results come in.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Texas A&M
NC State
UCF
Santa Clara

Last Four In

Missouri
Miami (Ohio)
SMU
Texas

First Four Out

Auburn
San Diego State
Oklahoma
New Mexico

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
Indiana
Seton Hall
Cincinnati

For the most part, Saturday’s results didn’t add too much drama to the bubble decision-making process. Ole Miss couldn’t upset Arkansas to continue its run at a bid in the SEC, while San Diego State losing to Utah State in the Mountain West avoided a team falling off the bubble there. For the most part, it’s the same data we’ve been staring at all week.

In the end, the hardest decision (pending what happens with VCU in the Atlantic 10 title game) came down to four teams for two spots. Those were: SMU and Texas making the field and Auburn and San Diego State as the first two teams left out.

The case for each:

SMU

In spite of its poor finish, SMU is a 20-win power-conference team with no bad losses and four Quad 1 wins. Its résumé is clean. It also can argue that the injury to B.J. Edwards is largely to blame for the end-of-season swoon, and the school announced Edwards will be back for the NCAA tournament.

Texas

The Longhorns have a pair of elite wins: at Alabama and vs. Vanderbilt. Their six Quad 1 victories are also the most of the teams around our final cut line.

Auburn

Ignore the ugly win-loss record for a second, and everything else about Auburn’s profile is tournament-quality. The Tigers’ metrics are better than SMU’s or Texas’s, their road win at Florida is the best of any bubble team and the win over St. John’s in the nonconference is legit.

San Diego State

The wins are less flashy, but SDSU’s analytical profile looks very comparable to the rest of the bubble. And would it be really fair for a Mountain West with six top-75 KenPom teams not to get two teams in?

Oklahoma and New Mexico may have a puncher’s chance at sneaking in, though it seems likely they come up just short. Anyone below that on SI’s final bubble needn’t bother turning on the selection show.

Sunday’s Games and Bracket Implications

American final: No. 1 South Florida vs. No. 2 Wichita State, 3:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The American will be a one-bid league in spite of two teams playing for the title having lost a combined once in their last 20 combined games. South Florida is projected on the No. 11 line, and it’s possible the committee could give the same treatment to Wichita State (especially given the afternoon tip time) despite having worse metrics than the Bulls.

Atlantic 10 final: No. 2 VCU vs. No. 4 Dayton, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

This is the game the committee should be watching most intently. A Dayton win here would steal a bid and create some chaos. VCU’s at-large résumé is solid but not spectacular, with no wins against projected at-large teams and 20 of 26 wins this season against Quads 3 and 4. The simplest thing for the committee to do is to give the winner of this one a No. 11 seed and leave VCU out with a loss, but the Rams’ WAB is better at present than Auburn, SMU or Texas. If they sneak in, a trip to the First Four would almost certainly be in VCU’s future.

Big Ten final: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 7 Purdue, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

It seems unlikely this game will have a tangible impact on the bracket. It’s possible that with a win the Boilermakers could climb to a No. 2 seed, but more than likely you’ll see Purdue as a No. 3 with Michigan as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest.

Ivy League final: No. 1 Yale vs. No. 3 Penn, noon ET (ESPN2)

Yale profiles as a No. 12 seed should it earn the Ivy’s automatic bid, while Penn would likely land as a strong No. 15 or weak No. 14.

SEC final: No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 2 Vanderbilt, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Vanderbilt solidified its standing as a top-four seed with a monster win over Florida on Saturday, while Arkansas held on vs. Ole Miss. The safe bet would be that both teams stay where they’re currently projected regardless of what happens.

Projected Field

Bold teams have clinched their automatic bid.
* — Projected automatic qualifiers.

East Region

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Akron
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Hawai’i
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Missouri/Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Howard/UMBC
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 St. John’s vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 VCU*
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State

West Region

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Ohio State
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 McNeese State
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 SMU/Texas
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Idaho
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Furman

South Region

No. 1 Florida* vs. No. 16 Queens
No. 8 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 California Baptist
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 South Florida*
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Siena

More College Basketball from Sports Illustrated

Listen to SI’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s YouTube channel.