Winners Club: Fantasy Football Draft Strategies to Follow
Good morning! College football returned this past weekend and the NFL preseason wrapped up. Now Week 1 of the college football season, which features an even better slate of games, kicks off this weekend and NFL starts next week.
Are you ready for football to be all the way back? If not, that’s what we’re here for! And if you’re feeling prepared, remember: There’s always more teams to draft and future bets to make, which is also what we’re here to help with.
Most of the fantasy football leagues I’m in have already drafted, but there’s a few that haven’t yet. Either by virtue of conflicting schedules among league managers or the desire to wait until the last possible second to avoid unforeseen injuries (like what befell the Ravens backfield last season), it makes quite a bit of sense to wait.
We begin today with draft strategies and a story about a few league insiders who share our love for the fantasy game.
Best Draft Strategies for Your Fantasy Leagues
Weighing upside versus risk will dictate your path through a fantasy draft. There are safe bets, big swings and players who fall somewhere in between.
Fabiano addressed the biggest upside and biggest risk for each of the first 10 rounds in a very useful piece for fantasy managers who are unsure on how they want to proceed. Here are a few players from the early rounds:
Round 1—Biggest Risk: Christian McCaffrey
“He's played in just 10 combined games during the last two years due to injuries, yet he's still picked second overall in most fantasy drafts. That's because he's averaged nearly 26 fantasy points per game over the last four seasons (42 games).”
Round 2—Biggest Upside: Javonte Williams
“Williams has the talent to be a top-5 fantasy running back, but you can get him toward the end of Round 2 in drafts. Of course, the concern is Melvin Gordon's presence in the backfield.”
Round 3—Biggest Risk: Cam Akers
“He's splitting first-team offensive snaps in training camp with Darrell Henderson, and coach Sean McVay has said, ‘I look at it as we've got two starting backs.’ If that comes to fruition, it'll be tough for Akers to be worth a third-round price tag.”
Ashley Landis/AP
Shawn Childs also weighed in with draft strategy advice for a different format: Auction leagues.
“For fantasy football managers who want more control building their teams than they might get with a draft, auction formats are the way to go,” Childs writes. “The most common format features a $200 budget for a 20-man roster in 12-team leagues. Each team will start a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, a kicker and a defense.”
What should your game plan look like? Should you spend big early or search for value near the end of the auction? Childs has the answers.
Aaron Doster/AP
Mike Tannenbaum and Joe Banner, two former NFL team executives, had front-row seats to fantasy football’s growth over the last few decades. Together, they entered the media space and knew if they were going to cover football, fantasy football had to be part of the equation.
Craig Ellenport spoke with Tannebaum and Banner about their exposure to the growing sport and Banner offered high praise for the dedicated fantasy football analysts:
More fantasy football reading:
Fantasy Breakouts for All 32 NFL Teams
Best and Worst Fantasy Football Schedules
Best and Worst Round 1 Fantasy Picks
Rookie Receiver ADPs in High-Stakes Leagues
Michael Fabiano’s Top 200 PPR Rankings
Potential Landing Spots for Kenyan Drake
Packers Heavily Favored to Continue NFC North Reign
The NFC North is an interesting division. It’s home to the Bears, who project to be one of the worst teams in football; the Lions, a feisty squad that people are falling in love with on “Hard Knocks”; the Vikings, who hope to return to the postseason with a new coach dialing up plays; and the Packers, who traded away top receiver Davante Adams, but retained back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay has won the division each of the last three seasons with 13 wins each year. And despite the hype that Minnesota and Detroit have drawn, Matt LaFleur’s club is a minus-money favorite to win the division once again, and their odds to make a deep run in the NFC or to win the whole thing are among the league’s best.
Will the NFC North standings fall in line with expectations? Or is there upset potential? Consult each team over/under win total preview below as well as the division betting breakdown to find out:
Green Bay Packers: 11.5 — Over (+100) | Under (-141)
NFC North future odds: -200 (First)
NFC future odds: +450 (Tied-Second)
Super Bowl futures odds: +1000 (Tied-Fourth)
“If only the NFL rewarded teams for regular-season excellence, then the Packers would be well into a dynasty. Green Bay, though, has disappointed in the playoffs each of the last three seasons. They are just 2-3 in the postseason over that stretch despite being the No. 1 seed twice, including last year’s home flop in the divisional round against the 49ers.” — Matt Ehalt
Matt Ludtke/AP
Minnesota Vikings: 9.5 — Over (+100) | Under (-133)
NFC North future odds: +275 (Second)
NFC future odds: +1800 (Ninth)
Super Bowl futures odds: +3500 (Tied-17th)
“The Minnesota offense looks like it can get the job done, but can the defense keep up? Former Packer Za’Darius Smith will certainly be a major factor. PFF has Minnesota’s defensive line ranked as the 12th-best coming into the season - ahead of the Bills and behind the Colts. It finished last year ranked 21st. If the defense and the offense can fire at the same time, the Vikings certainly look like a contender. But can they?” — Jen Piacenti
Detroit Lions: 6.5 — Over (-125) | Under (-110)
NFC North future odds: +900 (Third)
NFC future odds: +5000 (Tied-13th)
Super Bowl futures odds: +8000 (Tied-25th)
“Bettors are bullish on head coach Dan Campbell turning things around after only winning three games last season. The club is hoping that veteran Jared Goff, who ranked in the bottom half of all quarterbacks in passing yards (3,245), can return to the form he showed back in 2018 with the Rams. To help him succeed the club added wideouts D.J. Chark (free agency) and Jameson Williams (draft) to a core already consisting of running back D'Andre Swift and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.” — Frankie Taddeo
Doug McSchooler/AP
Chicago Bears: 6.5 — Over (+130) | Under (-167)
NFC North future odds: +1200 (Fourth)
NFC future odds: +5000 (Tied-13th)
Super Bowl futures odds: +10000 (Tied-27th)
“The defense has regressed each of the past three seasons since the Bears won the division in 2018, and the offense, armed with perhaps the worst receiving corps in the league, is incapable of compensating for deficiencies on the other side of the ball. Maybe first-year head coach Matt Eberflus can turn things around in the Windy City. But the way he and general manager Ryan Poles approached the roster building—err, teardown—this offseason, they both seem to believe that will take a few years at least.” — Kyle Wood
More divisional betting breakdowns:
AFC East: Bills | Patriots | Dolphins | Jets
NFC East: Cowboys | Eagles | Commanders | Giants
AFC South: Titans | Colts | Texans | Jaguars
NFC South: Buccaneers | Saints | Panthers | Falcons
AFC West: Chiefs | Chargers | Broncos | Raiders
NFC West: Rams | 49ers | Cardinals | Seahawks
Next up: The AFC North!
Storm, Sun Pull Off Upsets to Begin WNBA Semifinals
The second round of the WNBA playoffs tipped off Sunday evening with a pair of road wins by the underdogs.
The Storm marched into Las Vegas and stole Game 1 against the Aces, 76-73. Seattle’s Jewell Lloyd led all scorers with 26 points and Breanna Stewart added 24 points. The fourth-seeded Storm are the lowest remaining seed in the postseason—Las Vegas is favored again in Game 2, which tips off Wednesday before the series shifts to Seattle this weekend.
Candace Parker’s historic statline was not enough to propel the Sky to victory at home against the Sun. She tallied 19 points, 18 rebounds, six blocked shots and five assists and became the first player in WNBA playoff history to record those marks, but Connecticut still came away with a 68-63 victory. Game 2 tips off in the early slot on Wednesday and then the series heads East for Game 3 and Game 4, if necessary.
John Locher/AP
Wednesday
8 p.m. ET (ESPN2): Sun vs. Sky (-1.5) | Connecticut leads series, 1-0
10 p.m. ET (ESPN2): Storm vs. Aces (-5.5) | Seattle leads series, 1-0
Sunday
1 p.m. ET (ESPN2): Sun vs. Sky | Game 3
3 p.m. ET (ABC): Storm vs. Aces | Game 3
In Other News
Rory McIlroy Comes Back to Win Tour Championship: McIlroy rallied from six shots down to shoot a 4-under at East Lake and became the first three-time winner of the FedEx Cup. His purse for the victory was $18 million.
U.S. Open Breakdown and Betting Previews: The action gets underway today from Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Read up on the top seeds and check in with the singles odds for the men’s and women’s slate.
Projecting the USMNT’s Roster: The U.S. men’s national team’s 26-man roster will be finalized Nov. 9 ahead of the World Cup in Qatar. Find out which players will be in the fold during camp in September and who could make a push before the final cut.
Brian Robinson “In Good Spirits”: Commanders head coach Ron Rivera visited with his rookie over the weekend and offered a positive update after Robinson was shot multiple times Sunday in an armed robbery attempt in Washington, D.C.
Celtics’ Danilo Gallinari Tears Meniscus: Gallinari, who signed with Boston this summer, endured a knee injury over the weekend in Italy’s FIBA World Cup qualifying game. The national team announced the injury and did not offer a recovery timeline, though there is no damage to his ACL or any ligament damage.
Thanks for reading! And once again, Winners Club will not be sent out this coming Friday, Sept. 2. But don’t worry—I’ll be back next week to ready you for NFL kickoff as managers everywhere wrap up their last-minute fantasy football drafts.
Be sure to keep up with our coverage this week and next @SI_Betting and @SI_Fantasy!
