Look: Spotrac Contract Analyst Breaks Down Tee Higgins Next Contract in Multiple Ways

CINCINNATI — Spotrac editor Michael Ginnitti did an extensive breakdown of Tee Higgins' contract future this week and tossed out some interesting numbers along the way.

The numbers expert has Higgins at a lower projected contract than the market suggests he could make on the open market.

"The math hasn’t been kind to Higgins as he approaches his first monster payday," Ginnitti wrote. "A combination of time missed, drops, and a four catch, 65 yards per game average over the past 2 seasons keeps the overall price point somewhat tempered.

"At the time of this piece, the calculated value of a Tee Higgins contract according to our system clocks in at 4 years, $102M. Fortunately for Higgins, there are plenty of other factors in play that will certainly amplify these figures."

Ginnitti thinks it's a long shot Higgins stays on an extension and the numbers bear that out, especially if he rightfully wants to fall in line with prior receiver numbers over the past few seasons.

"It’s not inconceivable that the Bengals simply agree to pay both Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins this Spring, however, this scenario should be considered highly unlikely for now," Ginnitti wrote. "Chase has the resume to completely reset this position’s financial market, currently set at $35M per year, $110M guaranteed thanks to Justin Jefferson. So where would Higgins fit in under this? Two teams have recently locked in their top two wide receivers to big-time contracts: Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle in Miami, and A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith in Philadelphia. While Brown maxed out, Smith secured 9.8% of the cap last year on his $25M per year extension. If we adjust that to a projected $275M league salary cap in 2025, that would mean a deal right around $27M per year for Higgins, or a 4 year, $108M extension.

"Smith also secured 68% of his new money as guaranteed. For Higgins, this would mean $74M, a big number for a 'number 2,' but the precedent that one of the best teams in football has now set. Waddle, by the way, secured $76M practically guaranteed on his three-year, $85M extension in Miami. In other words, a figure around $75M isn’t out of bounds for Tee Higgins going forward. Is $108M over the next 4 years, $75M practically guaranteed enough to keep Higgins from hitting the open market this March?"

It would be shocking to see the Bengals guarantee that much money for their number two receiving option. Crazier things have happened though, and they'll have to get close to that unless Higgins is willing to leave a bunch of dough on the table.

Ginnitti expects him to secure an open-market deal looking like four-years/$124 million with $74.25 million guaranteed. Then again, Cincinnati can throw a wrench in all this and just franchise tag him again for $26,179,200.

Check out his full breakdown here.

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