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Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Syracuse

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Orange for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-5, 2-4 ACC) is set to face Syracuse (5-4, 2-3 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 13 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Orange:

- Rankings:

SyracuseLouisville

Associated Press Top 25

NR

NR

US TODAY Coaches Poll

NR

NR

SOS

83rd

14th

SP+

56th

46th

FPI

60th

48th

- Offensive Statistics:

SyracuseLouisville

Total Offense

58th (415.1)

34th (442.3)

Scoring Offense

56th (29.4)

60th (28.8)

Passing Yards

117th (167.4)

61st (237.3)

Yards Per Completion

52nd (12.56)

22nd (13.69)

Rushing Yards

3rd (247.7)

23rd (205.0)

First Downs Gained

66th (191)

79th (186)

3rd Down Con. %

99th (35.6%)

88th (36.9%)

4th Down Con. %

39th (61.5%)

80th (47.4%)

Red Zone Con. %

105th (77.4%)

52nd (86.7%)

Turnovers Lost

26th (9)

61st (12)

Interceptions Thrown

26th (5)

26th (5)

Fumbles Lost

34th (4)

105th (7)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

53rd (4.78)

42nd (4.33)

Sacks Allowed

60th (2.11)

39th (1.67)

Avg. Time of Possession

32nd (30:59)

22nd (31:46)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

SyracuseLouisville

Total Defense

14th (316.7)

87th (407.6)

Scoring Defense

44th (22.6)

74th (27.4)

Passing Yards Allowed

25th (191.1)

117th (274.6)

Rushing Yards Allowed

33rd (125.6)

42nd (133.0)

3rd Down Defensive %

27th (34.6%)

40th (36.2%)

4th Down Defensive %

71st (53.3%)

85th (56.2%)

First Downs Allowed

30th (165)

91st (200)

Red Zone Defensive %

51st (81.2%)

117th (91.4%)

Turnovers Gained

129th (5)

91st (11)

Interceptions Caught

119th (3)

33rd (9)

Fumbles Recovered

112th (2)

112th (2)

Sacks Per Game

4th (3.67)

26th (2.78)

TFL Per Game

8th (7.2)

32nd (6.1)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

SyracuseLouisville

Net Punting

127th (33.57)

43rd (40.80)

Avg. Kickoff Return

63rd (20.92)

51st (21.67)

Avg. Kickoff Return Def.

15th (17.04)

84th (21.81)

Avg. Punt Return

32nd (11.20)

30th (11.73)

Avg. Punt Ret. Defense

58th (7.11)

31st (4.70)

Field Goal Attempts

7-12

9-12

PAT

32-34

31-32

Read More

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 63.1 percent chance to win against the Orange. Louisville has an FPI of 4.4 (48th overall), whereas Syracuse has a rating of 1.8 (60th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2021-11-12 at 11.13.59 AM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 59.76 percent chance to take down the Orange. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 7.7 (46th overall), whereas Syracuse has a rating of 6.0 (56th overall). Following the loss vs. Clemson, Louisville is favored in all three of their remaining games on the schedule (Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

  • Preseason: 6.97
  • Post-Week 1: 4.63
  • Post-Week 2: 5.71
  • Post-Week 3: 6.49
  • Post-Week 4: 6.14
  • Post-Week 5: 6.19
  • Post-Week 6: 5.47
  • Post-Week 7: 5.74
  • Post-Week 8: 6.56
  • Post-Week 9: 6.20
  • Post-Week 10: 5.93

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Syracuse 27.

(Photo of Eric Dungey, Malik Clark: Mark Konezny - USA TODAY Sports)

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