Bills vs. Texans Preview: Prediction, storylines, odds, injuries, player to watch

Revenge is a dish best served in Houston.

The Buffalo Bills (7-3) will head south for a Week 12 Thursday night matchup with the Texans (5-5), seeking vengeance after their AFC South foe defeated them in a 2024 meeting at NRG Stadium.

The Bills bounced back with a critical non-conference win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago and will be in search of their second straight win over a Texans team that has engineered a winning streak behind backup quarterback Davis Mills. Houston has won two in a row, including victories over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans, and is hoping to spoil Buffalo’s chance of producing a hot streak of their own.

A win for the Bills this week is vital, as they remain in the chase in the AFC East standings, despite still looking up at the New England Patriots (9-2). Houston is in desperate need of a victory, as it remains in the thick of the hunt for a wild-card berth.

Buffalo hasn’t won in Houston since Week 11 during the 2006 campaign, as the Bills will be looking to end their five-game losing streak (including playoffs) on the road against the Texans in primetime.

Let’s dive into the news and a few notes surrounding this week’s AFC tilt:

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen calls out before the snap during second half action against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov 16, 2025 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What’s Vegas saying?

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Bills are 5.5-point favorites over the Texans on Thursday night, per FanDuel. It will be the fifth consecutive road game in which Buffalo has been favored to start the season. The Bills’ record against the spread in their previous four contests away from home is 2-2, including a recent 30-13 Week 10 loss at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Houston has yet to be a home underdog this season.

Weather report

The Texans will have the roof closed at NRG Stadium on Thursday night, eliminating any concerns regarding weather conditions for this matchup.

MORE: Buffalo Bills found 'special' secret weapon during Week 11 win over Buccaneers

Bills injuries

The Bills have ruled out three pass catchers for Week 12, including tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring), and wide receivers Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck) and Mecole Hardman (calf). Defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis is questionable to play due to a shoulder injury, which kept him out of this past week’s matchup against the Buccaneers.

The absence of both Samuel and Hardman creates a conundrum for the Bills at the WR position, where former second-round pick Keon Coleman was benched this past week. Buffalo dressed six WRs against Tampa Bay, including Samuel, Hardman, Khalil Shakir, Joshua Palmer, Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis.

It appears that, entering this week’s game, Shakir, Palmer, and Shavers are locks to earn a game-day jersey, while Coleman, Davis and Elijah Moore, who joined Coleman as a healthy inactive this past week, will battle it out for the remaining spots on the game-day roster. Buffalo also re-signed return specialist Brandon Codrington to the team’s practice squad during the week, and he is also a candidate to replace Hardman or Samuel, who both assumed return duties in Week 11.

MORE: Bills WR Keon Coleman expected to be benched for second straight game vs. Texans

Cover 1's Erik Turner has reported that he has been told Coleman will be inactive for a second straight week against the Texans, and that it will be Shakir, Palmer, Shavers, Moore and Davis as the Bills' five wide receiver on Thursday night.

Without Kincaid this past week, Dawson Knox saw the lion’s share of the workload at the TE position, as he was on the field for 77% of the Bills’ offensive snaps against the Buccaneers. Knox and rookie Jackson Hawes will continue to be the top two options, while practice-squad TE Keleki Latu got called on Sunday and is a candidate to be elevated once again in Week 12.

MORE: Bills officially rule out star TE, two more players for Week 12 vs. Texans

Davis Mills CJ Stroud — Jul 27, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) tapes his hand as quarterback Davis Mills (10) looks on during training camp at Houston Methodist Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Texans injuries

Mills will get the call under center with starting QB C.J. Stroud remaining in the concussion protocol, along with startingnickel cornerback Jalen Pitre, who has also been ruled out for Thursday’s game. Finally, reserve linebacker Jamal Hill will not play due to a hamstring injury.

Coaching matchup

With his team’s win over the Buccaneers, Sean McDermott improved his career winning percentage to 0.645, which ranks fifth among active head coaches with at least one full year of experience. That is well ahead of DeMeco Ryans, who is 27-21 (0.562) since taking over as Texans head coach in 2023. However, Ryans is 1-0 against McDermott in his career, a 23-20 win in Week 5 last season.

MORE: Houston Texans decide on starting QB for Week 12 matchup with Buffalo Bills

Oct 6, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans reacts during a play during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Top storyline

The Texans have allowed the fewest yards per game (258.1) and fewest points per game (16.3) of any team in the NFL this season, stifling opposing offenses week after week, particularly in the passing game. Houston leads the league in passing EPA per play allowed (-0.25), per NFL Pro, coupling a high-quality pass rush with elite coverage ability to prevent their opponents from controlling games through the air this season.

Houston has gotten after opposing quarterbacks at a rapid rate, with its average time to pressure of 2.54 seconds tied for third-best in the league, per NFL Pro. The Texans have also done an excellent job blanketing potential pass catchers this season, with Houston’s average target separation allowed of 3.1 yards tied for fourth-best of any defense in the NFL.

On the other side of the coin, the Bills’ aerial attack has been one of the most efficient this season, making for quite the intriguing matchup on Thursday night. Buffalo is fourth in the NFL in EPA per pass (+0.15), while, in the eyes of many, their offensive line has performed as the best pass-protection unit in the NFL throughout the 2025 campaign. Quarterback Josh Allen’s sack rate has increased from a season ago, but, through 10 games, he has faced the lowest quarterback pressure rate of his career (28.5%), per NFL Pro.

As mentioned previously, it remains to be seen which group of wide receivers the Bills will elect to dress on Thursday night. But whichever set they decide on for the Week 12 matchup, whether or not Buffalo’s pass catchers on the outside can gain ample separation and present open targets for Allen in the passing will be a deciding factor in this contest.

Player to watch

James Cook recorded his second-lowest rushing output of the season against the Buccaneers, finishing the Week 11 matchup with just 48 yards on 16 carries. And things won’t get any easier for him on Thursday night against Houston.

The Texans have allowed the third-fewest yards rushing in the NFL this season (87.1), including three games in which they’ve limited their opponent to fewer than 60 yards rushing. Houston has wasted no time assaulting opposing ball carriers throughout the first 11 weeks of the season, ranking sixth in the league with an average of 0.97 yards before contact allowed per attempt, acording to NFL Pro.

One of the primary elements of Cook’s success in the running game this season has been the Buffalo offensive line’s impressive ability to clear the way in front of him, resulting in the NFL’s fourth-best yards before contact average (1.78). He has taken advantage of plenty of open lanes, which has allowed him to rack up 96.8 yards per contest, which is second only to Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor.

Once again, a Texans’ strength against a Bills’ strength will weigh heavily on this weekday affair.

MORE: Keon Coleman responds after being benched in Bills' Week 11 win over Buccaneers

Prediction — Bills 21, Texans 17

At the end of the day, this game will come down to the Texans’ defense vs. the Bills’ offense. Mills is a game manager who has led Houston to a 17.5 points per game average in his 28 career starts. If the Texans have any chance of winning this game, they’re going to have to shut down the Buffalo attack. Conversely, if the Bills hope to come out on top, it will require an efficient offensive effort to counter Houston's resistance.

And I expect the Bills will prove to have enough to get the job done against what is, overall, an inferior opponent. It may be a challenging evening for Cook in the running game, but his contributions in the passing game will be significant on Thursday night, while Cole Bishop’s expeditious progression will once again prove impactful during a Buffalo victory.

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