Bengal Bets: Top Wagers in Bengals V. Dolphins Thursday Night Football Matchup

Cincinnati is looking to notch two wins in a seven-day span.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Sep 27, 2022 9:48 AM EDT
Original:
Sep 27, 2022

CINCINNATI — Out of the frying pan right back into the fire for the Cincinnati Bengals on a short week. Joe Burrow's crew got in the win column with a 27-12 triumph over the New York Jets. It included another 2-1 week for Bengal Bets as well.

Tyler Boyd cruised past his receiving total in the third quarter, and the Bengals covered the alternate spread, but Joe Mixon couldn't get past 18 receiving yards. Back for more winners in a short week that brings the Dolphins to town on Thursday for Ring of Honor night.

Here are the Week 4 Bengal Bets:

Season Record: 5-4 (+0.22 Units)

Bengals ML (-188 SI Sportsbook)

I am confident Cincinnati will do enough to win on the white-Bengal turf, but this should be a pretty tight contest. Miami is the lone remaining 3-0 team in the conference and has shown great adaptability over the first three weeks.

Head coach Mike McDaniel has me buying what he's selling with play designs and team mentality. Yet, I think defensive fatigue is one of the biggest reasons they drop to 3-1. The Dolphins' unit just played nearly 100 snaps in the brutal Miami heat on Sunday. They are just the third NFL team since 1940 to run 39 or fewer offensive plays in a game and win.

Add in the fact that Bills QB Josh Allen dropped back to throw 71 times (the most in NFL since 2015), and we should get a gassed Dolphins defense on Thursday. That was an unbelievable anomaly for them to get past Allen, who may have pulled off the comeback if he doesn't fumble a snap near the end.

That's bad news facing a Bengals team that leaned on Burrow early in the game last week. Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan dialed up passes on 17-of-21 opening plays against the Jets, helping them score points on four of their first five drives. No reason to think they won't be aggressive early once again.

Since 2018, road teams playing on Thursday are 31-38 SU and 37-31-1 ATS. Miami keeps it close, but the schedule spot and a banged-up QB keep them from winning.

Joe Burrow O272.5 Yards (-125 SI Sportsbook)

Keeping with the theme of a gassed Dolphins defense traveling to Cincinnati, Burrow should have a strong outing passing the ball. He nearly got to this mark in the first half last week, as Cincinnati built a strong early lead in New York.

Miami is downright bad defending the pass, and they also blitz at a decent rate—both mean good things for this yardage total. The Dolphins enter this game bottom-five in passing EPA (0.195, 28th) and success rate allowed (55%, 30th). They just faced a ton of coverage snaps—and they blitz at the 13th-highest rate in the league (25.5%).

Teams have stayed away from blitzing Burrow so far, for good reason (12 TDs-5 INTs against blitz in 2021, Highest PFF Grade among QBs, 11.5 yards per attempt). He's only seen 17 blitzes on his dropbacks thus far in 2022—if Miami stays stubborn with its identity as they did against Josh Allen, they are likely to regret it.

Burrow O1.5 Passing TDs (-154)

All in on Joey Primetime this week.

Most of the reasoning I laid out above applies here as Burrow goes for his 15th multi-TD passing outing since the start of last season. That's a strong 68.2% hit rate since recovering from his torn ACL.

Any time the Bengals play against an elite pass rush these overs are in trouble. Thursday is not one of those times. The Dolphins play into Burrow's hands with the high blitz rate, which is quizzical because they aren't getting home despite deploying extra rushers.

Miami ranks 29th in pressure rate (15.3%) after three games and doesn't have anyone that should scare Burrow on the edge. They have just six sacks (25th), with Melvin Ingram (two sacks) the lone player sporting multiple. Safety Jevon Holland is second with 1.5 on—you guessed it—multiple blitzes.

Add in that the inept Patriots offense is the one game they didn't give up multiple passing scores, and this is a juicy prop.

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